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Toads warned of impending quake in Sichuan province on Saturday

Zambia News.Net
Tuesday 13th May, 2008 (ANI)

New Delhi, May 13 : Warnings about a major earthquake taking place in China's Sichuan province were, would you believe it, given by toads, two days before the tragedy.

On Saturday, local media reported that hundreds of thousands of toads appeared on the streets of Manzhu, a city about 60 km southeast of Wenchuan, the county worst hit by Monday's earthquake.

A resident surnamed Liu was quoted by The China Daily as saying that he saw countless toads killed by passing vehicles as they crossed roads, and that he had never seen anything like it.

Unfortunately, no one had the presence of mind to understand why the toads were out on the streets. Experts have said animals can give advance notice of quakes, as they sense tremors before they happen.

Furthermore, a seismologist had warned more than five years ago that a strong earthquake was likely in Sichuan.

"Sichuan is virtually certain to experience an earthquake measuring above 7 in the next few years," Chen Xuezhong, a senior researcher with the geophysics institute of State Seismological Bureau (SSB), wrote in a paper published in December 2002, in the periodical Recent Developments in World Seismology.

The article is still available online.

In the article, Chen said Sichuan stood a big chance of being hit by a huge temblor due to its geographic location, and records since 1800 showed the average interval between major quakes in the province was about 16 years.

Since 1900, the area had experienced frequent big temblors, and records showed the longest interval between them was 19 years, with the average being 11 years, the paper said.

"However, the area hasn't seen any earthquake measuring above 7 for 26 years, since a big temblor struck its Songpan and Pingwu counties in 1976. We must be prepared for a big earthquake after 2003," Chen wrote

In a telephone interview with China Daily on Monday, Chen said many seismologists had noticed the pattern, which was why he did the study.

"But the study was published as an academic paper so it didn't receive much attention," he said.

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Comments on this story

~galljdaj+
05-13-08, 02:33 PM

Toads warned of impending quake in Sichuan province on Saturday

The world’s first seismography was a Chinese invention about 2000 years ago. It used the figure of toads with there mouth open to catch a ball that would be dislodged. Thereby the direction of the earthquake could be determined, and aid sent sooner.

A replica was made and exhibited in San Francisco in the late 1980’s as part of the Chinese exhibit for a Technologies development convention.

I am guessing that toads were observed before as an indicator direction or impending earthquake. Hence the Chinese Engineers were given a task to predict earthquakes.

RWN
05-13-08, 03:43 PM

Amphibians such as toads and frogs reflect general health in ecosystems

~galljdaj+;82061:
The world’s first seismography was a Chinese invention about 2000 years ago. It used the figure of toads with there mouth open to catch a ball that would be dislodged. Thereby the direction of the earthquake could be determined, and aid sent sooner.

A replica was made and exhibited in San Francisco in the late 1980’s as part of the Chinese exhibit for a Technologies development convention.

I am guessing that toads were observed before as an indicator direction or impending earthquake. Hence the Chinese Engineers were given a task to predict earthquakes.



Pollution and disasters effect them first and very noticably.
All animals are very in tune with what’s going on around them.
Frogs and toads are some of my favorite critters.

[URL]http://www.amphibianark.org/indicators.htm[/URL]
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waltky
07-17-08, 12:14 PM

Quake warning possible...
:cool:
A New Clue in Predicting Earthquakes
Friday, Jul. 11, 2008 - An accidental discovery has brought seismologists one step closer to being able to predict earthquakes.

]
As part of an unrelated effort to measure underground changes caused by shifts in barometric pressure, a team of researchers found that increases in subterranean pressure preceded earthquakes along California’s San Andreas Fault by as much as 10 hours. If follow-up tests advance the findings, seismologists may eventually be able to provide a few hours' notice for people to find safe haven prior to quakes. As the horrific images from China demonstrate, the effort is well worth the alternative. “Predicting earthquakes is the final goal for seismologists," says Fenglin Niu, the research team’s lead author and a Rice University seismologist. “This is a start."

Reporting in the July 10 edition of the journal Nature, researchers used a high-tech equivalent of a stereo speaker lowered into a bore hole near Parkfield, Calif., a half-mile deep and five yards from a measuring device. For two months beginning in late 2005, researchers transmitted pulse signals three times per second, from the speaker to the measuring device, calculating travel time between the two stations. Surprised scientists learned the seismic waves slowed dramatically on only two occasions: two hours prior to a magnitude-1 temblor, and a startling 10 hours before a magnitude-3 quake.

The research team theorizes that the immense amount of pressure building along the fault causes small cracks within the rock during the final hours before an earthquake, increasing rock density and slowing the transmission signals. “The more cracks you have, the slower the seismic velocity," says study co-author Paul Silver, a geophysicist with the Carnegie Institution of Washington. Still unknown is whether there is any significance to the fact that the magnitude-3 quake had a much longer pre-seismic signal than the lower-magnitude quake, or whether it was simply because its magnitude was larger and its epicenter closer to the sensors.

More [url:

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1822144,00.html[/url]


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